Comments on Dan Rosenbaum's NBA Blog: Defense on the perimeter: what do the adjusted plu...

U dumb assholes. Peja Stojakovic is AWESOME in wha...

2006-09-29T16:56:00.000-04:00

U dumb assholes. Peja Stojakovic is AWESOME in what he does for his team. u motherfuckers are just jealous cuz ull NEVER U HEAR ME NEVER BE AS NEARLY AS GOOD AS HIM. u dumbshit dont know the first thing about basketball..........u dont even know who tha hell Peja is.................... and what the hell he does. and its discrimination................im PRETTY sure ANYONE would agre...............

you dumb fuckers. Peja Stojakovic is AWESOME. ur j...

2006-09-29T16:54:00.000-04:00

you dumb fuckers. Peja Stojakovic is AWESOME. ur just jealous cuz ull never be as good as him...... and dont be racist just cuz hes different race or religion or w/e that's bullshit and it's discrimination.......and fuckers.......im pretty sure ANYONE else would agree.......u lazy *** *

you fucking fuckers. Peja Stojakovic is better tha...

2006-09-29T16:51:00.000-04:00

you fucking fuckers. Peja Stojakovic is better than all of you dumbshit!!!!!!!! Ur just jealous cuz he WAY more awesome than any of YOU...... and don't be racist.... sons of bitches........just cuz he's a different race or religion or w/e...that is bullshit. it's discrimination and im pretty sure anyone else would say so.........

Where is Josh Howard?? He has become Dallas' whole...

2005-08-11T11:24:00.000-04:00

Where is Josh Howard?? He has become Dallas' whole D? That kid is mean and will definitly be there next yr.(he lost some PT to others as well.)
As for the Wallace's hacking TD.... I guess you didn't see TD hacking in them, or see him bellyache EVERY time he was touched. I lost some respect for him watching him turn to an official evertime he misses.
Oh, this could go on forever, but as someone said "numbers arent everything"!
Nice props on T.Allen the C's will be reinging on these lists for yrs w/ he, Jefferson and Pierce.
Skunk#1

I live in Chicago and I agree with Dan's assessmen...

2005-08-11T00:47:00.000-04:00

I live in Chicago and I agree with Dan's assessment that Chandler (and even AD) helped him onto this list. The reason he did not start and play more minutes last year was based primarily on his poor defense, according to Skiles. And also, as noted, Duhon's tremendous defense. I also think Hinrich is overrated defensively. He is definitely a good team defense player and he puts forth maximum effort, but there are many PGs in the league who can dust him.

This is a great blog.

To add to your point Kevin,A team that rotates wel...

2005-08-08T15:31:00.000-04:00

To add to your point Kevin,

A team that rotates well and plays good team defense in general can be much more effective than 5 individuals expending much more energy but not playing together as a cohesive unit (not trapping on the baseline when a teammate forces him into the corner, etc). The observation that Darius helps the team more than Ruben on defense using the metrics that were used could mean that Darius contributes more to a solid "team" defense. This could be because he talks more on defense, helps out with trapping, rotates well, etc.

Not to beat this Miles vs. Patterson thing to deat...

2005-08-08T13:14:00.000-04:00

Not to beat this Miles vs. Patterson thing to death, but... I'm interested in the "tenacity" and "intensity" comment. While it may be true that Patterson plays with greater intensity, tenacity and effort, it does not necessarily follow that he plays with more effectiveness. No one plays with more effort, intensity and tenacity than Michael Ruffin, for example, and while he has his uses, many more players are more effective.

John Wooden cautioned at some point or another against confusing activity with achievement, and it's a warning I try to take seriously. Fans, media, coaches -- heck, players too -- like those hustle/effort guys. But playing hard doesn't always mean playing well.

One factor in why Miles may have better defensive results than Patterson (according to Dan's in-depth look at scoreboard effects) despite Patterson playing harder and with more tenacity, etc. could be in some physical attributes. Miles is several inches taller, he leaps well, and has long arms. Those attributes could help with stuff like forcing misses and turnovers, that could *result* in better scoreboard performance despite Patterson's superior effort.

Last season, for example, Miles blocked 2.2 shots per 48 minutes while Patterson had 0.5 blocks. Patterson had more steals -- 2.6 to 2.1 per 48 minutes -- but Miles' steals are a pretty good number. Add in Miles' defensive rebounding edge (about 2.8 additional defensive rebounds per 48 minutes), and what we're seeing is box score evidence of Miles getting more defensive stops per minute than Patterson. My guess is that height and length are key factors in those additional stops.

Note -- I'm not saying that the observation that Patterson plays with more effort etc. than Miles is incorrect. It probably is an accurate observation. My point is that effort does not always equate to achievement.

i did not see Suns' Shawn Marion who finished 5th ...

2005-08-06T02:35:00.000-04:00

i did not see Suns' Shawn Marion who finished 5th overall on 2004/05 NBA Defensive Player of the Year results. I could not find him on your PF list either.

any explanation?

thanks

yeah... good question. I don't know. have you se...

2005-08-04T16:59:00.000-04:00

yeah... good question. I don't know. have you seen games with the two of them? maybe espn classic runs games from last year? last year was a pretty good test of that, with patterson playing extended minutes consistantly. I'm not saying he's a great player, I'm just saying when I watch him play (which happens to be quite a bit) I'm amazed at the effect he has on the defensive end. wild claims about kobe-stopping aside, watch some tape of him covering kobe. I don't have a tried-and-true metric for you though. the point I'm making is, if your system tells me that d miles is better than r patterson then your system is broken.

All right, I'll bite. If we're looking at the wron...

2005-08-04T16:35:00.000-04:00

All right, I'll bite. If we're looking at the wrong stats for the Patterson vs. Miles question, which ones should we be looking at?

re: Ruben Patterson. While a criminal headcase, h...

2005-08-04T16:18:00.000-04:00

re: Ruben Patterson. While a criminal headcase, he might be the best defensive small forward in the league. Few play with the intencity and tenacity that he does in limited minutes. He's fast and quick and takes pride in defence, something that very few players (most notably Darius Miles) do. To say it doesn't show up in the stats is to look at the wrong stats.

Thanks, Dan. That actually makes sense to me. I gu...

2005-08-04T14:27:00.000-04:00

Thanks, Dan. That actually makes sense to me. I guess that the adjustments you make for lineup, etc. would reduce the effect that I'm thinking of.

To "anonymous" who thinks Ruben Patterson is a better defender than Darius Miles -- according to what? Why is Patterson so much better than Miles? What does he do on the court that makes him better defensively? And why isn't it showing up on the scoreboard?

Interesting list, but Miles isn't even the best de...

2005-08-04T14:17:00.000-04:00

Interesting list, but Miles isn't even the best defensive small forward playing for the Blazers: Ruben Patterson is by a large margine.

Kevin, as long as the substition pattern is not to...

2005-08-04T14:09:00.000-04:00

Kevin, as long as the substition pattern is not too rigid resulting in imprecise defensive ratings, then this should not be a problem. Chris Duhon, Kirk Hinrich, and Ben Gordon played a large fraction of the minutes at 1 and 2 for the Bulls, but each of them have good or very good adjusted plus/minus ratings.

Dan: I'm sorry I wasn't clear -- I didn't find the...

2005-08-04T12:58:00.000-04:00

Dan: I'm sorry I wasn't clear -- I didn't find the 69% percent being shared by Allen and Davis unusual in the least. What I'm interested in is the fact that Allen showed up at the top of the SG list while Davis was near the bottom. And, what I'm wondering is whether a good defender subbing for a poor defender (or vice versa) may serve to "exaggerate" the ratings of each.

Jeremiah, your first point is true of unadjusted p...

2005-08-03T23:40:00.000-04:00

Jeremiah, your first point is true of unadjusted plus/minus ratings, but not adjusted plus/minus ratings. Rigid substitution patterns do lead to less precise estimation, but as more and more data becomes available, that becomes less of an issue.

yes i think it is

2005-08-03T21:21:00.000-04:00

yes i think it is

Is 'opinions aren't everything' the official respo...

2005-08-03T19:35:00.000-04:00

Is 'opinions aren't everything' the official response to 'numbers aren't everything'?

I seems to me that if your team's second string is...

2005-08-03T01:05:00.000-04:00

I seems to me that if your team's second string is better than most other teams' second strings, that hurts the plus/minus of your starters. And if your team has a pretty set substitution pattern in which the second stringers pretty much spend all their time on the floor with their second-string teammates, it would be very hard to make adjustments using the very small number of minutes that each starter would get playing with the second-stringers, and each second-string player would get playing with the first string.

Am I wrong about this?

First of all, it would be preferable for these que...

2005-08-02T23:43:00.000-04:00

First of all, it would be preferable for these questions to be at the APBRmetrics message board.

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewforum.php?f=1

Complete lists are unlikely to be available anytime soon as I am letting a situation develop. I am sorry.

Vince Carter (Steve Nash) is near the top (bottom) of the defensive ratings for small forwards (point guards).

KevinB, having two players (Davis and Allen) share 69% of the time at a position does not sound unusual. I am sure there are many cases where that percentage is much higher.

I hope that I have not overstated the case for the rigid substitution pattern for Prince. My belief is that his results are a little more prone to random error because of the substitution pattern, but that will not explain his mediocre defensive rating. I think part of the problem is that qualitatively we have a tough time evaluating him as a defensive player. It is hard to know how much playing with the Wallaces makes him look pretty good.

Now Gordon is another story. We have only one year of data on him, so I think a conclusion that he might be a good defender but there is a lot of uncertainty around his rating does pass the smell test. The thing about his rating is that the two parts of it - the statistical and adjusted plus/minus ratings - are very different (with the statistical being lower). This raises more reason to be skeptical about his result. For the other rookies, their ratings are more consistent across the two measures, so I think we can have relatively more confidence in those ratings.

When you listed Josh Smith as the 3rd best shootin...

2005-08-02T22:18:00.000-04:00

When you listed Josh Smith as the 3rd best shooting guard, did you mean Josh Childress? I think Smith played more small forward and power forward.

i liked a lot of the hacking the refs let Detroit ...

2005-08-02T21:43:00.000-04:00

i liked a lot of the hacking the refs let Detroit get away with in games 3 and 4 of the finals (blow outs?). does this make ben wallace a game changer while he is karate chopping tim duncan's arm off to give up a transition hoop? or is he a game changer in the loss when theyre actually calling fouls?

and its funny that redd is at the bottom of the SG list but their point guard Mo Williams isnt found anywhere since he is the a huge reason their team defense as a whole crumbles and makes everyone look like crap. run a pick and roll on the kid and the opposing PG is in the paint in less than a second. the defense is consistently forced to quickly collapse and rotate. the entire team is bad at it.

this doesnt say much for individual physical factors on why someone succeeds as a defender and why someone fails. its just 'objective' numbers mashed together to get some numerical ranking system and sheds no light on the subjective feel of the game and a teams defense (or lack of) as a whole. its just short-sighted math.

numbers arent everything

Where is T. Prince en Kirilenko? There must be som...

2005-08-02T17:00:00.000-04:00

Where is T. Prince en Kirilenko? There must be something wrong with your system.

Wow, tons of surprises on the top SG and SF lists....

2005-08-02T16:14:00.000-04:00

Wow, tons of surprises on the top SG and SF lists.

If Prince's non-admission into the Top 7 could be because of a rigid substitution pattern, would it not apply to several other players as well? How can you adjust for something like that statistically?

Ben Gordon's admission really does not pass the smell test either.

But to be honest, I haven't fully grasped the method here. I know how you get pure adjusted +- : Y=margin, X=vector of 400+ player categories, read off the coefficients. I know you use some kind of efficiency rating based on pp100. But I don't know what rating that is or how you combine it with the adjusted +-.

:D

One interesting pair of names is Tony Allen and Ri...

2005-08-02T16:02:00.000-04:00

One interesting pair of names is Tony Allen and Ricky Davis. According to 82games, the two combined to play 69% of the Celtics' SG minutes last season. How much of their ratings are the push-pull of subbing for each other?